NEW DELHI: Several mid-size or larger markets are expected to witness a decline of more than 20 per cent in the advertising economy this year, including India, Brazil, Spain, and the MENA region, reveals the GroupM TYNY Global Mid-Year Forecast. It adds that the global advertising economy will fall by 11.8 per cent, excluding the effects of increased political advertising in the US, a sharp decline from the 6.2 per cent growth rate of 2019.
The report further reads, “Including U.S. political advertising, we estimate global advertising will decline by 9.9 per cent in 2020. The median market should decline by more, or 12.2 per cent, which in part reflects that declines are less pronounced in the world’s top two advertising markets, the U.S. (expected to fall 7.5 per cent including political advertising) and China (expected to fall 2.8 per cent).”
The only multi-billion-dollar market, expecting growth this year, is Indonesia, where expectations are for 5.8 per cent growth. Argentina is the only other market expected to grow in nominal terms, although it should decline on an inflation-adjusted basis.
This decline can still be considered “modest” given the scale of the impact of the pandemic on global GDP, which will fall much more significantly than it did in the 2009 global financial crisis. In that year, when GDP declined by one per cent, GroupM estimates indicate that global advertising fell by 11.2 per cent.
“However, we do see positive news on the horizon as we expect global advertising to grow in 2021 by double digits for half of the top 10 markets and by single digits for the other half,” the forecast highlights.
As per the findings, it is estimated that, in 2020, digital extensions of TV, radio, print and outdoor advertising should equate to $31 billion, or 13 per cent of total advertising activity. The figure is seven per cent up from $22 billion of five years ago.
Digital extensions are most pronounced in the outdoor sector, where they account for $9 billion this year, or 31 per cent of the total outdoor sector’s activities. Digital extensions of traditional television equate to $12 billion this year, nine per cent of that medium’s total.
Despite this, digital advertising is expected to decline by 2.3 per cent in 2020. This follows nearly a decade of double-digit growth, with many years exceeding 20 per cent at a global level.
During 2020, digital advertising will have a 52 per cent share of media captured, up from 48 per cent in 2019 and 44 per cent in 2018. Share growth should abate somewhat going forward, adding one to two per cent each year.
“Our new estimates also break out search from non-search digital advertising, with search accounting for $109 billion in revenue during 2020, falling 2.6 per cent. Other forms of digital advertising that account for $172 billion (excluding digital extensions of traditional media) will fall by less, or 0.6 per cent this year,” pitches the report.
Additionally, television advertising is expected to decline by 17.6 per cent in 2020, ex-US political advertising, before rebounding slightly to grow 5.9 per cent next year.
Digital extensions and related media, including advertising associated with traditional media owners’ streaming activities, as well as Hulu, Roku, etc., will fare much better, with growth of +3.7 per cent this year and +11.3 per cent the next year – around nine per cent of total TV spending this year.
Also, OOH advertising is expected to decline by 25.0 per cent, including digital out-of-home media. A partial rebound with 14.9 per cent growth is expected the next year.
The report notes, “Beyond 2021, we expect outdoor advertising to grow by low or mid-single digits and generally lose share of total advertising, although we do expect larger brands to generally increase their allocations of budgets to the medium.”
