MUMBAI: ZenithOptimedia's latest edition of Advertising Expenditure Forecasts revealed that although the ‘BRIIC’ economies of Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China represent around eight per cent of global advertising, they supplied 30 per cent of growth in 2005. The research revealed that in 2008, these countries would collectively contribute to a growth of 33 per cent.
According to the findings of the study, advertising growth is still meeting or beating economic growth in most countries. Also, television's share of ad budgets appears to be peaking worldwide, and may well already have peaked in at least two of the most mature television markets - the US and the UK.
The forecast for Internet growth and outdoor have also been published and according to the research, the latter appears to be acting as a substitute for television.
ZenithOptimedia's Advertising Expenditure Forecasts said that traditional ad expenditure continues tracking or exceeding world economy. It predicted that Internet advertising will be $18 billion this year. "If it were a country it would rank top five in size and growth - like a Western Europe giant growing at an emerging Asia rate," the report said.
Also, there seems to be a strong demand for market research in the world, according to the report.
"We expect global advertising expenditure to grow 4.8 per cent in 2005 in line with our 5.0 per cent prediction a year ago. 2006 is a touch firmer at 5.9 per cent (we predicted 5.8 per cent a year ago) and 2007 is down slightly at 5.7 per cent (5.8 per cent a year ago). Our opening forecast for 2008 is 6.0 per cent," the report said.
ZenithOptimedia predicted an advertising growth of major media including newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor and Internet of 4.8 per cent in 2005, exactly in line with the long-term trend rate of ad revenue growth, which itself is the same as the long-term trend rate of growth in the world economy.
Advertising expenditure
Major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, Internet)
US$ million, current prices. Currency conversion at 2004 average rates.
Source: ZenithOptimedia
Year on Year change
Major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, Internet)
Source: ZenithOptimedia
The report said that the moderate rate of ad growth this year reflected a predictably tough comparison versus 2004, which was a quadrennial year (presidential elections, summer Olympics, European football). 2006 is a mild pickup to an above-trend 5.9 per cent, assisted by mid-term elections, the soccer World Cup and those tough comparatives washing through.
The ad-growth hotspots
According to the report, the USA is the largest contributor to global advertising growth, providing 33 per cent of the ad dollars added between 2004 and 2008 while accounting for 41 - 43 per cent of global advertising.
The dynamic ‘BRIIC’ economies of Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China are only 6 - 10 per cent of the sector but are all among the top eight growers, and predicted to supply 26 per cent of global ad growth 2004-2008. By contrast, the five large European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) are making a predicted contribution of 11 per cent, and their combined share of the global ad market consequently shrinks from 19 per cent to 17 per cent over the same period.
Internet
One medium ZenithOptimedia sees as an increasing factor fueling the worldwide advertising marketplace is the Internet. The Internet will take 4.6 per cent of advertising spend this year, rising to 6.4 per cent forecast in 2008. From 2005 to 2008 inclusive, ZenithOptimedia predicted it will create $15.8 billion new ad dollars – 17 per cent of total global ad growth over this four-year period.
The report added, "This may be conservative: we often revise Internet revenues upwards. In Sweden, an online leader, the Internet already accounts for nine per cent of advertising and is forecast to rise to 12 per cent. In time we may find Internet assumes such a double-digit share worldwide, comparable to the share magazines take today."
Adspend by medium 2004-2008
* The totals here are lower than the total on the previous page, since that table includes total adspend figures for a few countries for which spend is not itemised by medium
Strong demand for market research
ZenithOptimedia estimated the expenditure on other forms of marketing communications and services at $414 billion in 2005, slightly ahead of the display ad total.
This estimate comprises direct mail, directories (like Yellow Pages), price and other promotions, PR, market research, outbound telemarketing and miscellaneous specialist media. As a whole, this group is growing at about the same rate as display advertising: direct mail and outbound telemarketing in particular are holding growth back.
According to the agency, market research is the star and although it accounts for only $23 billion or six per cent of marketing communications, services expenditure, ZenithOptimedia estimated it will grow 11 per cent this year and at a similar annual rate 2006-2008 as advertisers seek to improve return on marketing investment and offset the risks inherent to media fragmentation.
