The good news first. The Asia Cable & Satellite Guide 2002 has projected a strong pay TV subscriber growth for Asia, with year end 2001 estimates pegged at 165.6 million subscribers. A healthy 14 per cent year on year growth and a penetration of a total of 484.9 million subscriber homes has been forecast for the year. India and China will contribute 80 per cent to the subscriber growth in the region, according to the guide.

Now the bad news. The report, published by the Cable & Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia (Casbaa) and Media Partners Asia (MPA), says that higher operating costs, restrictive regulation and piracy have depressed pay TV cash flow and bottom line earnings throughout the region. Pay TV systems have been unable to access the capital they need to accelerate digital build-out and drive earnings momentum, the report notes. If the region‘s broadband cable and satellite industries can access greater capital, content and technology, to drive digital media distribution over the next three years, the overall pay TV market could be worth almost US $ 40 billion by 2012, in terms of a basic revenue opportunity, it says.

Casbaa executive director Simon Twiston Davies says the data provided in the Guide reaffirms the view that the Asian pay TV and datacasting industries are only at the starting block. He feels the current economic climate will not hold back significant investment in systems and programming. "The fact remains however that pay TV in Asia can only fulfill its potential once governments further move on the deregulation they have only just begun," MPA officials say.

The guide shows total industry revenues at US $11.3 billion in 2001, a 20 per cent growth from last year with subscription revenues at US $ 9.5 billion (up 23 per cent with Japan‘s pay TV market contributing more than 40 per cent) and advertising at US $ 1.9 billion (up 7 per cent). The report models average revenue per subscriber unit (ARPU) to rise from US $ 5 per month in 2001 to US $ 9 by 2012 with subscription revenues projected to reach US $ 33.9 billion. The net worth of the pay TV advertising market is forecast at almost US $ 5 billion by 2012.

Highlights of the report -
* Subscriber momentum has largely come from Korea, India and China while smaller markets like Malaysia have also contributed to top line growth.
* Together, China and India have almost an 80% share of pay TV subs in Asia.
* The ARPU for operators in these growth markets remains low however (US$1-US$2/month in China; US$3 in India; US$10 in Korea) while monthly ARPU in Malaysia (US$17), Singapore (US$20) and Hong Kong (US$31) has dipped following the introduction of cost-effective packages, part of a bid to drive subscriber growth.
* Digital pay TV penetration has yet to assume major significance in Asia. By year-end 2001, MPA estimates 6.6 mil. digital pay TV subs, almost entirely consisting of DTH satellite customers, of which communication and broadcast satellite platforms in Japan would represent more than 60 per cent.
* The bulk of digital cable deployments over the next three years will be via one-way set-tops and cost-effective two-way set-tops. By year-end 2002, MPA forecasts 2.1 million digital cable subs, with 61 per cent estimated as customers on one-way set-tops that support basic pay channels and addressability.

Asia Pacific Pay TV Subscriber Homes (Cable & DTH Satellite)
Market 2000

All data in (000) except % chg. * represents year-end estimates ** includes NHK‘s analog and digital broadcast satellite services

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited is seeking consultants for its proposed foray into the field of cable TV and associated services in Delhi and Mumbai.
The state run telecom behemoth has stipulated a minimum annual turnover of Rs 250 million for the firm that offers its consultancy services. The Nigam, in a press notice inviting tenders for the consultancy, has asked for details of experience in cable TV consultancy from the firms applying for the deal, as well as details of professional expertise of the key personnel and of specialised manpower, a list of the firms‘ major clients, outstanding achievements and awards.

Last week, minister of state for telecom Tapan Sikdar had announced the government‘s intention to enter the cable television business along with a government owned broadcaster. Sikdar had told Parliament that MTNL, being a provider of fixed line, cellular and Internet access services in the two metropolises, could meet customers‘ needs of entertainment, information and education with such an alliance.

MTNL, Sikdar said, would be granted an alliance to start a cable network using its optic fibre and copper cable network in the two cities. The Nigam would use content provided by Prasar Bharati to offer multimedia services and give customers access to streaming video, he said.

Zoom. The stockmarket polevaulted today on a manic Monday which proved to the best in the past three months. The Bombay Stock Exchange sensitive index (BSE Sensex) ended firm at 3,322.77, up 70.57 points at the end of the day. The National Stock Exchange Nifty Index rose 21.60 points to end at 1,080.60.
Institutions went berserk as they went about picking selective counters and speculators ploughed into second rung media and tech stocks. Media and tech stocks were at the forefront. Infosys was the top gainer with a close to 10 per cent rise to Rs 3,910. The next highest climber was top media stock Zee Telefilms, which scampered up 9.8 per cent to Rs 132.80 till close of day. The reason: the buzz that Zee TV has offloaded equity to a foreign media major continues to add buoyancy to the stock, even though the company has denied the rumour outright. Additionally, Zee Telefilms advisor UBS Warburg has placed a buy recommendation on the stock, which has been fuelling the upward run, say market sources.

The market expects viewers to respond well to the mythological serials such as Ramayan and Mahabharat which are slated to launch soon on struggling mother channel Zee TV. Finally, the perception is that Zee Telefilms has successfully transitioned from a free to air to a pay TV regime.

Other media stocks also joined the party. Sri Adhikari Brothers skyrocketed 20 per cent to close at Rs 78, while Jain Studios zipped up 14 per cent closing at Rs 49. TV18 closed stronger by 12 per cent at Rs 98 while Pentamedia was up 10 per cent at Rs 70. Tips notched up gains of 8 per cent when trading ended, with its price at Rs 99. Saregama India went up 11.91 per cent to Rs 155. Cinevista Communications (Rs 46.10), Padmalaya Telefilms (Rs 106.50), Adlabs Films (Rs 56.30), Creative Eye (Rs 34.65), Mid-Day Multimedia (Rs 23.90), Pritish Nandy Communications (Rs 30.90), and Crest Communications (Rs 70.15) hit their individual upper limits of their circuit breakers.

On the tech front, software major Satyam Computers gained 5 per cent to close at Rs 224 while second line techs attracted considerable buying and closed with huge gains. Rs Software was up 16 per cent at Rs 60 while Visualsoft gained 15 per cent at its close of Rs 162. Polaris was up 15 per cent at Rs 148 while Aptech closed at Rs 79 with a gain of 12 per cent. Wipro gained 10 per cent at Rs 1,462.

Momentum stocks Global Tele and HFCL also notched up neat increases. Global Tele was up 4 per cent at Rs 123 while HFCL gained 6 per cent at its close of Rs 103.

Asian bourses were singing with the Hang Seng index up by 69.65 points, Tokyo‘s Nikkei up by 367 points to 11,064, Seoul‘s Kospi by 29.38 points to 675. The Straits Times‘ Index and Taipei‘s Taiex also showed northward movements.